I was on CNBC yesterday talking about the World Trade Organization negotiations and whether they are likely to go anywhere this week. Needless to say, optimistic though I am on the future of free trade, I’m not at all optimistic about the Doha Round. When the Seattle Ministerial meeting collapsed in 1999, there were 420 points of disagreement. That has increased to 760 in the draft text. The negotiations are stuck because no one has the political will to give ground. Fortunately, without progress at the WTO, the world has been getting freer, but most of the world’s liberalisation is happening unilaterally thanks to efforts of countries like India and China.
I was asked what I though a deal could do for the developing countries and pointed out that while agricultural liberalisation could create an extra $142bn for developing countries, only $32bn of this would come from access to developed markets. $110bn would come from developing countries themselves opening up, something left-wing NGOs are encouraging them to avoid.