Archives:
September 2006

UNCTAD proposal would restrict choice for developing countries

UNCTAD launched a remarkable report at the Commonwealth Club on Thursday calling for aid currently spent by agencies such as DFID, DANIDA, USAID and the World Bank to be spent through a single, monopoly UN body. I was a platform speaker at the press conference which was organised by the Royal African Sociey and the Royal Commonwealth Society, and I argued that the proposal would damage developing countries’ choices. The speaker from Christian Aid welcomed the report.

There is an argument that dealing with too many donor organisations is a burden, but this is an exaggerated problem. By having multiple sources of funding, this gives developing countries the flexibility to reject agencies that are not on the same wavelength and work with others that are. In Kenya, I found a great deal of scepticism towards the World Bank but much more support for DFID, so they work more with the latter and less with the former. Imposing a monolithic, single aid agency would be bad news for developing country sovereignty.

The author of the report, who is currently writing a book denouncing “market fundamentalism” dismissed the idea that developing countries would benefit from bottom up approaches to aid spending, criticising William Easterly’s support for “searchers” rather than “planners” in aid. He called for socialism in developing counties in order to create successful businesses, saying that private sector investment clearly does not work in poor countries.

I called for less multilateral aid, not more, arguing that much of what is currently done by the World Bank should be taken over by national aid agencies such as DFID and the Bank should become a body funded by money raised on financial markets.

The Guardian and the Independent both quote me in Friday’s papers. According to the Guardian:

The London-based thinktank the Globalisation Institute, which accused the UN of having a “megalomaniac agenda”, said that instead of another “top down institution”, freedom should be given to aid recipients over sourcing their money.

Simon Maxwell, Director of the Overseas Development Institute, also criticised the report, saying: “The UN must earn the right to a larger share of aid… [it] needs to show that it can perform as well or better than the World Bank, the regional development banks and the EU. It is not there yet.”

A spokesman for Hilary Benn, the UK’s Secretary of State for International Development, also attacked the report saying: “We do not agree that a new UN fund is needed or justified. Improving existing mechanisms will be a better way to deliver increasing aid.”

BT: why the fuss about Indian call centres?

Friday’s Guardian newspaper had an excellent interview with BT boss Ben Verwaayen. It covers the issue of call centre outsourcing:

Two years ago, BT started to move its broadband call helplines to India. Three of its 34 call centres are there, a proportion at odds with public perceptions. Verwaayen, who has spoken passionately in support of globalisation, says: “I am stunned, to be honest, about the fascination with where a call centre is. From the employers’ point of view, I can understand it. But from a customers’ point of view, you should just want the service.”

He does admit the service has had teething problems and believes extra training to deal with the demands of idiomatic English as well as knowing when to ask for more specialist help are the answer.

He’s right. The criticism of Indian call centres is over the top, and they often cause improved service because it is more cost effective to keep have spare capacity in call centres during peak periods.

Private investment brings clean water

Reuters reports that factories and homes in Tamil Nadu, India, have clean, reliable water for the very first time thanks to private investment. Although private provision of water has received some criticism from anti-capitalist groups, the newly-built water treatment and delivery plant shows a practical way of extending clean water access to a country where 87 per cent of rural dwellers live without running water.

The plant is majority owned by private firms, and is operated by Mahindra Water Utilities, a 50-50 joint venture of Mahindra Infrastructure Developers and Britain’s United Utilities.

State-backed, but majority owned by private firms and investors, the water treatment and delivery plant in Tirupur is the first of its kind in a country where almost half the urban population and 87 percent of rural dwellers live without running water. Before the plant was built, trucks delivered water from the river or wells - but unfiltered.

“The water systems in India need technology upgrades which can minimise wastage and theft and ensure a more efficient system of distribution and transparency,” said Shreerang Deshpande, manager of network and maintenance for Mahindra Water Utilities. “You need private participation for the resources and expertise required.”

Francis Fukuyama on why the World Bank is not ideal as a corruption-fighting body

Francis FukuyamaFrancis Fukuyama has posted an insightful blog arguing that the structure of the World Bank makes it ineffective as a force fighting corruption. He says that:

…pressure to move money regardless of performance is vastly increased by lobbying from the likes of Jeff Sachs, Bob Geldorf, Bono, and others to meet the UN’s Millennium Development Goals. The MDGs seek, among other things, to halve extreme poverty and provide universal primary schooling by 2015. Michael Clemens of the Center for Global Development has argued cogently that these goals are both unrealistic and counterproductive, but the pressure to “do something” to end poverty in Africa is enormous. The idea that the Bank will simply sit on loans and aid going to poor African countries until they dramatically improve their governance is itself wholly unrealistic, given this larger political climate.

If an international organization were truly serious about tackling the problem of corruption, however, sitting on aid is precisely what it would have to do. This is why the single most successful effort to spread good governance around the world is the European Union’s accession process. Unlike the Bank and its loans, the EU’s member states are not eager to expand membership in their club. This means that their conditionality is properly back-loaded: no one gets the big plum of EU membership until they have satisfied its governance criteria. This has put countries like Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey under the gun in a way that the Bank could never do.

The Bush administration’s innovative effort to reinvent aid, the Millennium Challenge Account, could have been structured in a similar fashion, offering grants as a reward only at the end of a long reform process. But it has fallen under the same pressures as the Bank to move money, based on the misunderstanding that it is aid flows rather than aid effectiveness that should be the real measure of success.

(Via World Bank Private Sector Development Blog.)

The problem with DFID’s top-down education policy: “the quality is rubbish”

Kenyan schoolThe UK’s Department for International Development is the biggest financial funder of state education in Kenya. But out on a recent trip visiting rural Kenya, I found it surprising how critical people were of the state schools. As one (left-wing) NGO worker complained: “98% of children go to primary schools but what use is that when the state schools’ quality is rubbish?”. According to Prof. James Tooley, the thinking behind big top-down approaches by donors such as implemented by DFID is misguided:

Because such large proportions of poor children are in private unrecognised schools, off the state’s radar and not on official statistics, this means that the proportion of children not attending school has been over-estimated. In Lagos State, for instance, the existence of private unregistered schools would reduce the percentage of out of school children from 50 percent to 26 percent. In other words: the difficulty of reaching ‘education for all’ may have been overestimated.

Moreover, our research in the slums of Kibera, Nairobi, suggests that the introduction of free primary education in January 2003 did not increase overall enrolment in schools because there were already private schools serving the slum populations. We found a total of 76 private schools in the slums with around 12,000 students enrolled. These schools had suffered a massive fall in enrolment since free primary education was introduced; and at least 25 private schools had closed altogether. The number of children lost from private education appeared far greater than the additional enrolment in the state schools bordering Kibera. At best - allowing for some exaggeration by the school owners of the numbers of children who had left - we could infer that the additional enrolment was a result of children transferring from private to public schools.

What about quality?

Children transferring from ‘mushrooming’ private to government schools may not seem such a bad thing, given the assumption that private schools can be of low quality. We explored the attainment of students in private and public schools serving poor communities and found that private schools in general had a large achievement advantage. For instance, in Lagos State, the mean maths score advantage over government schools was about 15 and 19 percentage points more respectively in private registered and unregistered schools, while in English it was 23 and 30 percentage points more.

In other words private schools are outperforming government schools. Moreover, they spend less on teachers - a cost which is likely to make up most of school’s recurrent expenditure - than do government schools. In general, the average monthly teacher salary in a government school ranges between three to four times higher than in an unrecognised private school.

If aid is channelled only into state education systems, then it may be concentrated on the low-achieving and expensive option. The way forward, instead, may be to encourage the private sector that has shown itself able and willing to serve the poor. Funds could be channelled through a revolving loan fund, for instance, to help private schools improve their infrastructure, or through voucher schemes to help the poorest access the higher quality private education that is already available.

The problem with DFID’s approach is that it is managed by Planners in Whitehall. Developing countries would be better off if they were helped by Searchers, building upon indigenous systems rather than imposing monolithic Western systems from on high.

Prof. Tooley has another article in today’s Financial Times.

Allister Heath on the virtue of the services economy

Allister Heath of The Business has an excellent article in today’s paper on the subject of manufacturing and services. He writes:

To embrace Britain’s new services-led prosperity doesn’t mean that we should turn a blind eye to government policies that unnecessarily accelerate the decline in manufacturing - such as excessive tax, oppressive red tape and a collapse of science and engineering teaching in state schools - but to recognise that it is in the best interest of the British economy for the market to be allowed to reallocate resources to where they are most productive. Global demand for knowledge-intensive services sectors (finance, business services, education and healthcare) is growing at breakneck speed, they face less competition than manufacturing from low-cost countries and suffer less than manufacturing from the rise in energy costs. So it makes sense to specialise in upmarket services - as well as specialist manufacturing - rather than commoditised manufactured products that are better produced in India or China, the emerging giants of the 21st century.

Far from being a curse, the relatively fast decline of Britain’s manufacturing has even turned out to be a blessing in disguise: economies that move fastest from low value-added sectors to high value-added sectors do best. Much more than its rivals in the euro zone, Great Britain has succeeded in shifting out of low-growth economic sectors, such as agriculture and low-to-medium-tech manufacturing, into higher-growth, knowledge-intensive services. These now account for 42% of total British employment, according to new research from Citigroup, well above the average of 35% in the 15 West European members of the European Union (EU) and much more impressive than the 33% in Germany, 36% in France and 30% in Italy. The knowledge business generated 63% of the rise in nominal British gross domestic product (GDP) in the three years to 2004 while the value of manufacturing output has collapsed from 30% of GDP in 1973 to 14% in 2004 (and even less today).

This switch from manufacturing to services explains why British employment and economic growth has remained strong: by embracing free trade and allowing the market to rip in the 1980s the British economy has specialised in those sectors in which it has a competitive advantage best and enjoyed a huge economic boost as a result. Those countries (France, Germany, Italy) that have desperately clung to manufacturing with billions of euros worth of subsidies have done less well. It explains why Britain still has the 13th highest GDP per head in the world (adjusted for purchasing power parity) - not especially brilliant but far from disastrous and above France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Sweden, according to the World Bank.

World poverty and inequality on the decline

Via Greg Mankiw’s blog, I find that according to the Quarterly Journal of Economics:

Poverty rates… in 2000 were between one-third and one-half of what they were in 1970… There were between 250 and 500 million fewer poor in 2000 than in 1970. We estimate eight indexes of income inequality implied by our world distribution of income. All of them show reductions in global inequality during the 1980s and 1990s.

Excellent.

Protesting at international conferences is a waste of effort

The World Development Movement has been banned from entering Singapore during the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Alan Oxley, the former Australian Ambassador to GATT, says, well, great:

The pattern of approach of radical NGOs to international meetings has been the same since the riots at the WTO meeting in Seattle in 1999, including against the Bank in Washington.

The Bank and Fund should have commended the Singapore Government for taking prudent action to reduce the cost of policing the meeting (the Hong Kong WTO meeting cost around US$40 million) and reducing the risk of disruption of the meeting, damage to facilities and harm to delegates.

I am uneasy about the banning of the World Development Movement not least because it makes them martyrs. What I find odd is that the WDM and other hard-Left ideological groups actually like wasting their time and money (while damaging the environment) going to conferences where they can’t take part in the negotiations, instead having to stand out in the cold. What does any of this achieve?

Stiglitz is living in Nordic dreamland

I have a letter in today’s Financial Times under the headline Stiglitz is living in Nordic dreamland:

Sir, Joseph Stiglitz (”We have become rich countries of poor people”, September 8th) is clearly confused when he promotes the Scandinavian social model.Sweden, the region’s economic crown jewel, has been living beyond its means, needing to borrow money for most of the past 35 years. Unlike dynamic economies, Sweden is failing to create jobs: the incomes of the poorest 10 per cent of Swedes have grown six times more slowly than the poor in the UK and eight times more slowly than the poor in Ireland over the past decade.

Using internationally comparable figures, Sweden suffers from 10.3 per cent unemployment, higher than in France. We do much better in the UK by running an open economy where business can thrive.

Also, there’s a great letter from Jim O’Neill, Head of Global Economic Research at Goldman Sachs International in which he says:

It is disappointing to read an ex-senior World Banker querying the remarkable opportunities that globalisation is offering to all countries that want to engage and participate.

With evidence of stronger, less volatile and more evenly shared global growth despite all the difficult challenges thrown up in the past five years, globalisation should be praised, not diminished.

The FT and Fairtrade

Fairtrade coffee beansThe Financial Times has been giving Fairtrade a hard time over the past few days, having investigated the on the ground compliance with its rules. It found non-Fairtrade coffee being sold as Fairtrade and workers being paid less than their countries’ minimum wages. Nevertheless, voluntary certification schemes have an important role to play informing consumers about the quality of a product and the details of how it was made.

The FT today suggests that Fairtrade could be a springboard for thousands of entrepreneurs in poor countries, and help smallholders jump beyond the need for the Fairtrade premium. Sadly, for too many farmers in poor countries today, they are trapped in not terribly voluntary co-operatives. Out in rural Kenya last week, I found that there was some scepticism towards the traditional view the co-operatives are always forces for good. In fact, in Kenya, the coffee co-operatives have suffered from significant mismanagement, with individual farmers often exploited by the leaders of the co-operatives. In fairness, Kenya has been trying to help rebalance the situation, for example introducing six year term limits on co-operative leaders. I do worry that spokespeople for the Fairtrade movement suffer from a myopic romantic vision of the coffee farmer in a co-operative, whereas in truth such an existence is backbreaking and mired in exploitation.

Unfortunately, Fairtrade is not geared up to deal with smallholders. As many smallholders have found out, Fairtrade just isn’t an economically viable option because the scheme requires each individual smallholder to pay high fees to join. There must be reform of the scheme if the FT’s vision is to become reality.

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Alex is a regular commentator on the television and radio, and has appeared on programmes and stations such as the BBC's Newsnight, the Today Programme, CNN, Al Jazeera, Channel 4 News, CNBC, Bloomberg and Sky News.

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