I was on BBC Radio yesterday talking about the situation in Burma. Aside from putting some of the issues in context, I made the point that sanctions have to be very carefully thought through. History has shown they have a relatively poor success rate. Indeed, the rather draconian economic sanctions imposed by the US have been counterproductive. America’s ban on new investment and on exports has merely meant that the US has little effective voice or influence in the country. Sanctions combined with massive pressure on EU companies to leave the country has caused suffering and hardship for the Burmese people. Yet the sharing of values and influence in Burma could have been a real force for good.
On the other hand, there needs to more diplomatic work to truly restrict arms sales to the country. It is all very well for the EU and US to not sell arms, but given that the Burmese government can buy them from China and Russia, it is not hugely effective gesture. China is, of course, the central player here: visit the north of Burma, and you will see significant Chinese investment, with the hotels, restaurants and major businesses owned by Chinese people.